ENSO, shipping, fertilizer and opportunities for further analysis
About the brief
This working brief examines food-supply risks associated with the 2026–27 El Niño, connecting crop-production scenarios with historical dependence on particular suppliers, shipping routes, and fertilizer sources. It brings together yield records, growing-season climate exposure, rainfall tracking, and trade data.
The analysis distinguishes conditional crop scenarios from operational forecasts. It also describes how local weather updates, changing teleconnections, farm inputs, and trade conditions could inform a broader early-warning system. The full PDF contains the analysis, four figures, a technical appendix, and sources.
Read the full policy brief (PDF, 10 pages)
Related reading
For an introduction to the history and wider effects of El Niño, see How we came to understand El Niño at the Salata Institute. Related work is described on the Crops research page.